Forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are anticipating an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin in 2024. The season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is expected to have an 85% chance of above-normal activity, a 10% chance of near-normal activity, and a 5% chance of below-normal activity.
- Predicted Storm Activity: NOAA forecasts 17 to 25 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. Among these, 8 to 13 could evolve into hurricanes, including 4 to 7 major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph. Forecasters express a 70 percent confidence in these projections.
Factors Influencing Predictions
The anticipated heightened activity is attributed to various factors:
- Warm Atlantic Ocean Temperatures: Near-record warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean contribute to the conducive environment for storm formation.
- La Niña Conditions: La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean play a role in influencing atmospheric patterns, potentially leading to more favorable conditions for hurricanes.
- Reduced Atlantic Trade Winds: Decreased Atlantic trade winds allow storms to develop and intensify more easily.
- Less Wind Shear: Reduced wind shear, or the variation in wind speed and direction over short distances, creates conditions favorable for tropical storm development.
NOAA underscores its commitment to public safety, highlighting initiatives such as AI-enabled language translations and enhanced depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone to aid in preparedness and response efforts.
Emphasis on Preparedness
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks stresses the importance of readiness in the face of severe weather and emergencies. He emphasizes the need for individuals and communities to proactively prepare for potential hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail, noting that taking proactive measures today can significantly impact recovery efforts in the future.
Conclusion: Stay Informed and Prepared
As the NOAA predicts an above-normal hurricane season for 2024, it’s crucial for individuals and communities to stay informed and prepared. With advanced forecasting techniques and a commitment to public safety, agencies like NOAA and FEMA are working to mitigate risks and protect lives and property. Stay updated on weather forecasts and emergency preparedness guidelines, and download The Local News App to receive timely alerts and information directly to your phone.
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