A significant winter storm has descended upon New York City, bringing heavy snowfall at a rate of up to 2 inches per hour in some areas. This marks a stark contrast to the previous snow drought of over 700 days in Central Park. Metro and suburban regions of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are expected to receive 6 to 8+ inches of snow by Tuesday.

Intensification of the Storm

As the storm intensifies, it’s accompanied by a heavy snow band affecting various parts of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. A Winter Storm Warning blankets the entire region, including Long Island, northern New Jersey, and the Hudson Valley, urging caution on the roads and anticipating disruptions to the Tuesday morning commute.

Hour-by-Hour Forecast

• 5 a.m.: The Winter Storm Warning is in full effect as colder air from Canada merges with the system, resulting in a wintry mix transitioning to snow. Temperatures hover around freezing, signaling a significant drop in the rain-snow line.
• 7 a.m. to noon: Snowfall intensifies during the morning commute, with thunderstorms possible, indicating the storm’s strength. Wind speeds of 20 to 25 mph, gusting up to 40 mph, are expected in the city and Long Island.
• 1 p.m.: The system begins to move out of the area, with conditions gradually calming by the afternoon. Temperatures are forecasted to reach the mid-30s.
• 6 p.m.: The Winter Storm Warning concludes, marking the end of the snowfall period.

Snowfall Projections

Meteorologist Nick Gregory predicts varying snowfall totals across different regions. Northern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and parts of Connecticut are likely to see 9 to 12 inches of snow, while New York City, Long Island, and metro New Jersey can expect 6 to 8+ inches. However, northern Tri-State counties might receive only 3 to 5 inches of snow.

Best and Worst Case Scenarios

Depending on the intensity and trajectory of the storm, snowfall totals could range from 4 inches in NYC if the storm shifts further south, to as high as 13 inches if heavy snow banding persists. Northern and western areas could receive 14 to 16 inches, while Long Island might see 9 to 10 inches of snow.

Additional Concerns

The combination of snow and wind gusts could lead to power outages, with Coastal Flood warnings issued for southern Nassau County and advisories in place for other coastal areas.

Mid-Winter Weather Outlook

Despite a meager 2.3 inches of snow recorded in Central Park thus far, meteorologist Nick Gregory suggests the potential for an additional 15 inches of snow through mid-winter. This projection hinges on the occurrence of one or two significant storms, with February presenting favorable conditions for winter storm development.

El Niño Influence

The presence of a strong El Niño suggests warmer-than-average temperatures and increased precipitation for the Tri-State area. This pattern is expected to persist, prolonging winter conditions into February and potentially bringing further snowstorms.

Expectations for Continued Winter Weather

As the winter storm blankets New York City and surrounding areas with heavy snowfall, residents are advised to exercise caution and remain indoors if possible. With ongoing El Niño conditions and favorable atmospheric patterns, the likelihood of additional snowstorms remains high, underscoring the need for continued preparedness throughout the winter season.