A significant winter storm is approaching New York City, with forecasts indicating the potential for 6 to 10 inches of snowfall, marking a stark turn from the prolonged snow drought experienced in Central Park over the last 700 days. A Winter Storm Warning covers the entire tri-state region, urging caution and preparedness among residents.

Preparations and Anticipated Impact

Flight Cancellations and School Closures

As the storm looms, the city is mobilizing preparations. Flight cancellations and school closures are underway, reflecting the anticipation of disruptive weather conditions. Communities are bracing for potential power outages, as the snowfall rate during the storm’s peak could reach up to 2 inches per hour.

Weather Forecast Timeline

Monday Evening through Tuesday

• Monday evening: Temperatures will hover around the lower 40s, with the onset of the storm bringing rain initially, transitioning to snow in northern and western areas.
• Tuesday, 1 a.m.: The Winter Storm Warning takes effect for interior regions.
• 3 a.m.: Colder air from Canada influences the system, leading to a wintry mix before transitioning to snow.
• 4 a.m.: The Winter Storm Warning extends to the city and coastal areas.
• 5 a.m. to noon: Snow intensifies, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour expected across the region. Thunder may accompany the snowfall in parts of New York City and metro New Jersey.
• 2 p.m.: The storm begins to move out of the area, with conditions gradually improving from west to east.
• 6 p.m.: The Winter Storm Warning concludes.

Snowfall Expectations

Varied Accumulations Across Regions

Meteorologist Nick Gregory predicts varying snowfall totals across different areas:

• Northern New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior Connecticut: 9 to 12 inches.
• New York City and metro New Jersey: 6 to 9 inches.
• South Shore of Long Island: 4 to 6 inches.

Worst-case and Low-end Scenarios

Potential Snow Accumulations

The worst-case scenario could see up to 13 inches of snow in NYC, with higher accumulations expected north and west of the city. Conversely, if the storm trends southward and the rain-to-snow transition is delayed, snowfall could be limited to 4 inches in the city.

Additional Concerns

Power Outages and Coastal Flooding

Strong winds accompanying the snow could lead to power outages, particularly when gusts reach 30 to 40 mph. Coastal flooding warnings and advisories are in effect for various areas, highlighting the multifaceted impact of the storm.

Mid-Winter Weather Outlook: Continuing the Trend

The lack of significant snowfall in Central Park this winter contrasts sharply with the forecasted potential for additional snow accumulation in the coming weeks. With strong El Niño conditions prevailing, the region is likely to experience above-average temperatures and increased precipitation.

Forecast Insights

Nick Gregory anticipates the potential for additional snowstorms in February, driven by favorable conditions for winter storm development. The prolonged winter weather is attributed to the persistent El Niño conditions, promising continued fluctuations between rain and snow events.

Navigating Winter’s Challenges

As New York City braces for the impending winter storm, preparations and caution are paramount. With the potential for significant snowfall, residents are advised to stay informed, heed official warnings, and prioritize safety amidst the wintry conditions.